User blog comment:Clay Thompson/Just another cast assessment/@comment-26100452-20150211204225/@comment-26047483-20150211215624

Some assumptions I made here include:

-Masaya will have difficulty initially due to everyone attempting to assert their dominance

-Masaya is the strongest tribe if they work together

-Nagarote is the weakest tribe

-Tribe Switch will occur at final 14

Based on this I assumed Nagarote will go to Tribal twice and Escameca/Masaya once to vote out either physically weak, slow, or annoying players.

Then I assumed:

-The most likely target for weakness would be Jenn

-The most likely target for challenge threat potential would be Joaquin

-The most likely target for strategic threat would be Max

Based on this and Nagarote being down a player it seemed unlikely Jenn would be safe if her tribe lost. Lindsey could be a target for not fitting in should she find herself with mostly white collars, and her challenge prowess, while not poor, will probably not be so incredible as to render her vital to a tribe. Finally, if Max's tribe loses right before the merge, if his tribe is not mostly white collars, he seems like someone people would be concerned with due to his experience with the show.

For the merged group I assumed:

-Masaya and Escameca would initially ally versus Nagarote

-The remaining members of Escameca would be seen as challenge threats, with the possible exception of Sierra

-Shirin and So would be the strongest strategists

-Joaquin, Mike, Kelly and Rodney would be viewed as physical threats

-Shirin and So would be mental threats

-Tribe loyalty would be stronger than usual due the shared collar or lack thereof

Thus Vince of Nagarote goes first as the biggest Nagarote challenge threat, after which Joe and Hali ally with Masaya to eliminate the members of Escameca. Should Joe win immunity following Sierra's elimination, Hali would be voted out. Should anyone else win at that point, Joe would probably go first. I'm assuming here that Joe wins or has an idol. At final four, Tyler wins immunity when he would have been voted out and Shirin and So turn on their ally Joaquin.

For FTC:

-So will draw attention to her likability

-Shirin will draw attention to her strategic gameplay

-Tyler will draw attention to not being disliked by many/anyone on the jury

Presuming the jury values strategic gameplay over popularity, Shirin wins. Either way, Tyler gets third.