Board Thread:Virtual Tribal Council/@comment-1294345-20160415023130/@comment-27638357-20160416175451

UltraBubbles wrote: Zypker124 wrote:

UltraBubbles wrote:

Also, the Debbie vote was the best of bad options for Aubry and Cydney. If they had tried to vote out Scot or Jason, then Cydney would've likely been voted out as a result due to Julia's double-dealing. It's obvious why Cydney would be opposed to this plan, as it's her neck on the line, and for as Aubry, people seem to ignore the fact that BY HER OWN ADMISSION, Cydney is now her closest ally in the game, and she thinks Debbie is a liability. Why on earth would she ever want to sacrifice her closest ally for someone she doesn't have complete faith in? It seems like people have unrealistic expectations regarding Aubry and Cydney's gameplay in this episode, and it seems very unfair to both of their credits as gameplayers (frankly, in my own opinion, I see them as the two strongest players this season overall). The most obvious counterargument is that you argue in Cydney's and AUbry's favors that Julia would've flipped and Cydney would've been voted out. However, the Debbie blindside could never happen without Julia's vote. It's just an ironic play that is inconsistent with their logic.

As for the correct strategy, I'll just quote from what I said earlier. Interested to hear what you think:

"The correct play (except for Cydney, maybe) was for the girls' alliance to do a 4-2 split. Julia, and, let's say Debbie would vote for Jason, while the other 4 vote for Scot. Even if Julia flips, it's a 4-4-1 tie, and Debbie will join them in voting for Scot. There is risk because Scot could play an idol, but since they know Tai has one, the chances that the other idol lands on Scot is at most 50-50. But the whole "rock-paper-scissors" thing is just bogus to begin with, and I don't thinK Jason would give his idol to Scot, so that was the correct play. Keep in mind, none of them know the idols can be combined to form a super idol, so it's natural to assume that they'd either play idols in their regular form or don't play them at all." This statement is at least partially false; whether or not they believe Tai, the fact that he let that slip during the last tribal council plants that seed out in the open for everyone who didn't already know about it, so they have to consider the possibility of a super idol being played. They may not know who has the idols themselves, but they at least have to consider the fact that a super idol can exist and disrupt their plans should something go awry in the plan to vote out Jason, Scot, or Tai at the current tribal council.

As for your counterargument, I do see your point in the irony of Aubry having to trust Julia in order to save Cydney and potentially herself. It is highly risky, yes, but you have to consider the other options - Jason and Scot are being kept out of the loop as the clear enemies of the women + Joe alliance, and Tai is seen as too close to them to trust with important information. Joe was approached by Aubry and Cydney, but Joe was vehemently opposed to the idea of getting rid of Debbie. This leaves Julia, who, despite being untrustworthy in the eyes of Aubry and Cydney, is the only likely candidate to rope in to make this plan work. If not, there is that potential that Julia flips over to the Jason-Scot-Tai faction, and then the danger is that you could potentially lose Michele as well. This way, they at least keep Julia (and potentially Michele) rooted in the women's alliance's side.

For the super idol issue, I'm simply speaking from Aubry's and Cydney's point of views, since it appeared to be that their concern was that Scot and Jason would play idols. I don't think the concern of a super idol was mentioned in the episode, however, and I don't really think they took it into account. They wouldn't want to vote out Julia if they thought about countering the super idols, so I was trying to visualize the best plan for them. I think it's slight hindsight as well if we are to assume they should know about the super idol because of a superficial accidental testimony by Tai.

I do agree with your logic for the plan. But you have to think about how this all loops back together. You say that Julia might be untrustworthy, but Aubry and Cydney needed to trust her to make the plan work. If you think about it, that's essentially what Debbie was doing; trusting Julia to make the split vote plan work. In either scenario, it could backfire and Julia could betray them and Cydney could go home regardless. The difference is that since Julia is getting rid of a woman, Cydney and Aubry won't be able to gauge where her head is at, since Julia voting for Debbie could really mean a multitude of things since she's following Aubry's and Cydney's plans but also keeping the Scot/Jason/Tai alliance around longer.

You also have to keep at least the near future in mind when playing Survivor. Think about what happens. Now Aubry and Cydney have most likely upset Joe, who could easily flip to the Jason/Scot/Tai alliance since A) he might realize he's on the bottom B) It's an all-guys alliance. They still don't know where Julia's head is at, as I mentioned before. Since none of the guys were voted out, they couldn't flush them (I know it's being results-oriented, but still, I mentioned in my previous post that their Tribal Council spectacle was an obvious fluke), and now they have to rely on Tai flipping, at least according to the preview, and you mentioned that Tai is seen as too close to them. They should've taken the chance and pin their votes on Scot, but the Debbie vote off doesn't get them anywhere and only digs them a larger hole. In addition, now they're stalling the flushing of the idols. The most sensible scenario that I see is that Julia goes with the guys' alliance, so it's 4-4, and Joe turns on the girls for voting out Debbie, making it 5-3. Then the girls would be sumarily eliminated. In addition, if the (Tai or Julia)/Jason/Scot alliance all makes it pass this next vote with the super idol, then the girls are screwed because the alliance of three could play the super idol at F7, and they'd be more than willing to draw rocks at F6, which I imagine the girls won't do, so they'll cruise to the end. As foolish as it may be, these people still think it's a F3 season, so they're amassing in these bigger alliances.