Board Thread:Virtual Tribal Council/@comment-27638357-20160519221405/@comment-27638357-20160522175230

Tozza6 wrote: Zypker124 wrote:

Tozza6 wrote:

Zypker124 wrote:

Although I would argue that it was Cydney's move, Michele has to be given credit for saving herself at Final 6. Since there was absolutely no strategic reasoning for Aubry/Joe to keep Michele over Jason, there is no way they went along with what Cydney wanted for no reason. Michele's social skills must have come into effect here, allowing herself to not only form an alliance with Cydney, but appear to be loyal enough to be kept around by Aubry. There was plenty of reason. If Aubry and Joe vote out Michele and keep Jason, they lose a ton of jury votes. For sure. You saw how Tai's flipping resulted in him getting zero votes at FTC. A flip like that is a guaranteed loss of Julia's, Michele's, and Cydney's FTC vote, so whoever Aubry and Joe are sitting next to in the F3 will win. Of course, Aubry and Joe do not have the same brain as I do, so we don't know if this was where their head was at. But let's be real, these voting decisions are not made during Tribal Council. Michele throwing Tai under the bus had little effect on the outcome. From what we saw, it was all Cydney's work, campaigning to Aubry to not follow through with the Michele blindside. In Aubry's confessionals, I didn't hear anything about anything Michele did that might influence her decision. I heard her talk about Tai's aggression and Cydney's adamant refusal to follow through with the plan, but nowhere did I hear Michele as a direct factor in Aubry's decision-making. I really don't get the philosophy that "if it worked out for Michele, she HAD to have done something to help her complete it." GO back to the cookie analogy I just made in the previous post. Just because the kid picked the chocolate chip cookie out of the 10 cookies doesn't necessarily mean that he was smart and smelled the odor along with looking at the texture to determine the composure; it could've just been that he was completely lucky. Same applies here. Michele has received a fantastic edit from her mundane confessionals, so if Michele had done something to save herself, we probably would've seen it. There's no reason not to if you're giving her this much screen time for cheeseburgers. Had Aubry and Joe voted Michele out, let's see what would have happened. Joe would still get medevaced at Final 5, leaving Cydney, Jason, Tai and Aubry left. Once again, assuming Cydney doesn't win immunity, the votes would be tied, 2 votes Cyd and 2 votes Aubry, with Aubry winning the firemaking challenge. Aubry wins against those two easily, no matter if she flipped. The ONLY way I can see Aubry losing is if Cydney wins FIC AND Aubry loses the firemaking challenge to Jason. However, this would take a lot to happen, so I think had Aubry voted Michele out, Aubry would have won. Of course, with Michele gone, things could have panned out very differently, but I think Aubry would have had a great chance at winning.
 * I've seen some people defend Michele as a winner. I personally think she is one of the winners with, say, less strategical aptitude than most. Note that by strategic, I encompass the entire gameplay of a winner, including social, tactical, challenge, etc. People applaud her social game, but I just didn't see it on screen. Aubry and Cydney were shown to be the ones making relationships and reaching out to people.

Also, Michele's game WAS shown at the Reward Challenge where Cyd and Aubry said that they liked Michele and thought that she was loyal. I never said Michele had a DIRECT influence, but she definitely had an INDIRECT influence.

You are forgetting one thing; THEY DON'T KNOW THAT JOE'S MEDICAL EVACUATION WILL HAPPEN! We have the hindsight, but they don't. They're sitting at the Final Six analyzing numbers and vote offs. You cannot tell me that they should be taking into account the possibility that Joe will get medically evacuated in the next few days, because that's just bogus. No one will take that into account, not even the amazing Kim Spradlin, I would bet. So let's see what happens if Aubry/Joe flip and save Jason, voting out Michele:
 * If Joe isn't medically evacuated, then Tai still has one last Tribal Council where he can use his Hidden Immunity Idol. I know he's a bad player, but unless you can convince me that he's atrocious enough that he won't use his idol, I'm going to assume he will. Cydney will most likely be angry at Aubry/Joe that they flipped on Michele, and Jason will still be on the outs. Cydney probably makes the pitch to Tai at F5 that Aubry/Joe are a tight pair and need to be broken up. This pitch worked with Tai at F8, so it wouldn't be a hard sell. Taking immunities out of the equation, Aubry has a 50-50 chance of going home, since I'm giving more leeway that although it's the better move for Tai, it might not be the move he makes. That's not a great position to be in.

Now let's see what happens if Aubry/Joe vote out Jason at F6 and Joe isn't medically evacuated: Michele is targeted next at F5, hands down. Tai was gunning for Michele, as we saw at F6, so taking immunities out of the equation, AUbry/Joe/Tai is enough votes to lock up the F5 vote, and Michele is eliminated. I'm assuming that since Tai decided to vote against Cydney at F4 in this season, that he would do so again, and Cydney gets voted at F4. That leaves an Aubry/Joe/Tai F3, in which Aubry most likely wins.

So Aubry made the right choice there based on the results of the most likely scenarios.

Indirect influences are not always going to appear in a random 1000-game simulator that I base my criteria off of. If Michele doesn't have a direct influence on the result, it's a huge red flag, because it demonstrates a lack of awareness if your name is being brought up and you don't directly terminate that idea.