Board Thread:Virtual Tribal Council/@comment-1294345-20160415023130/@comment-26435126-20160416165636

Zypker124 wrote:

UltraBubbles wrote:

Also, the Debbie vote was the best of bad options for Aubry and Cydney. If they had tried to vote out Scot or Jason, then Cydney would've likely been voted out as a result due to Julia's double-dealing. It's obvious why Cydney would be opposed to this plan, as it's her neck on the line, and for as Aubry, people seem to ignore the fact that BY HER OWN ADMISSION, Cydney is now her closest ally in the game, and she thinks Debbie is a liability. Why on earth would she ever want to sacrifice her closest ally for someone she doesn't have complete faith in? It seems like people have unrealistic expectations regarding Aubry and Cydney's gameplay in this episode, and it seems very unfair to both of their credits as gameplayers (frankly, in my own opinion, I see them as the two strongest players this season overall). The most obvious counterargument is that you argue in Cydney's and AUbry's favors that Julia would've flipped and Cydney would've been voted out. However, the Debbie blindside could never happen without Julia's vote. It's just an ironic play that is inconsistent with their logic.

As for the correct strategy, I'll just quote from what I said earlier. Interested to hear what you think:

"The correct play (except for Cydney, maybe) was for the girls' alliance to do a 4-2 split. Julia, and, let's say Debbie would vote for Jason, while the other 4 vote for Scot. Even if Julia flips, it's a 4-4-1 tie, and Debbie will join them in voting for Scot. There is risk because Scot could play an idol, but since they know Tai has one, the chances that the other idol lands on Scot is at most 50-50. But the whole "rock-paper-scissors" thing is just bogus to begin with, and I don't thinK Jason would give his idol to Scot, so that was the correct play. Keep in mind, none of them know the idols can be combined to form a super idol, so it's natural to assume that they'd either play idols in their regular form or don't play them at all." This statement is at least partially false; whether or not they believe Tai, the fact that he let that slip during the last tribal council plants that seed out in the open for everyone who didn't already know about it, so they have to consider the possibility of a super idol being played. They may not know who has the idols themselves, but they at least have to consider the fact that a super idol can exist and disrupt their plans should something go awry in the plan to vote out Jason, Scot, or Tai at the current tribal council.

As for your counterargument, I do see your point in the irony of Aubry having to trust Julia in order to save Cydney and potentially herself. It is highly risky, yes, but you have to consider the other options - Jason and Scot are being kept out of the loop as the clear enemies of the women + Joe alliance, and Tai is seen as too close to them to trust with important information. Joe was approached by Aubry and Cydney, but Joe was vehemently opposed to the idea of getting rid of Debbie. This leaves Julia, who, despite being untrustworthy in the eyes of Aubry and Cydney, is the only likely candidate to rope in to make this plan work. If not, there is that potential that Julia flips over to the Jason-Scot-Tai faction, and then the danger is that you could potentially lose Michele as well. This way, they at least keep Julia (and potentially Michele) rooted in the women's alliance's side.